Get ready for some cannabis companies to report boosted earnings as revenues got juiced from New Jersey adult-use sales. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic thinks that the addition of this market could drive growth in second-quarter sales for several companies in a report he issued on Thursday. While there hasn’t been any official data from New Jersey on the number of sales, which began April 21, Zuanic thinks it could be as high as $60 million in the second quarter.
The first month was reported to be $24 million and since that time the store count has grown from 12 to 17. The SKUs at the stores have jumped from 283 to 1,322 as more products get added. Looking at the landscape the companies poised to benefit the most are TerrAscend (OTC: TRSSF) with three dispensaries in NJ selling recreational cannabis as does Ayr Wellness (OTC: AYRWF). Next with two stores under their belts are Verano (OTC: VRNOF), Acreage Holdings (OTC: ACRHF), Columbia Care (OTC: CCHWF), Curaleaf (CURLF), and Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF). Ascend Wellness (OTC: AAWH) taps in at one store, but its Montclair dispensary was been approved to start rec sales, however, Montclair won’t allow recreational sales.
Brick & Mortar Wins
In order to make his sales estimates, the analyst calculated the number of days during the second quarter that these companies could open their stores for business. Then he looked at the hours the stores were open and the market share that the operators had. He reviewed the online menus to determine SKU counts for the stores and further drilled down to in-store brands.
“If we define market share based on opening hours (prorated for when stores began rec sales), in 2Q22 Green Thumb and Verano would have had 19% share, TerrAscend 18%, Acreage 15%, Curaleaf 11% (its second rec store opened 5/24), Ascend Wellness 8%, Columbia Care 6% (extended rec opening hours from early June), and AYR 5% (its stores opened for rec on 6/14),” wrote the analyst. “If we define it based on SKU count, Green Thumb would have had 24%, Verano 23%, Ascend 17%, TerrAscend 11%, Curaleaf 9%, Columbia Care 3%, and AYR 2%.”
However, the geography and cannabis market in the state splits into three zones – North, Central, and South. He wrote in his report, “There are more stores in the northeastern part of NJ while the Curaleaf store in Bellmawr initially had minimal competition and benefited from incoming Philly traffic. We should also factor in location (next to a high-traffic road/ highway) and parking availability. Although this report is not a 2Q preview, we would estimate that Green Thumb and Verano had ~18% share in 2Q; Curaleaf, Acreage, and Ascend 15%; TerrAscend (parking is an issue) 10%; and Columbia Care and AYR the rest (9% combined).”
The analyst then got out his calculator and wrote, “On the base of 1Q22 reported sales (all else equal; again, we are not forecasting total 2Q sales here), this would mean +4.4% for Green Thumb (18% x $60Mn, on a 1Q22 sales base of $242.6Mn); Verano +5.3% ($10.8Mn/$202.2Mn); Acreage +15.8% ($9Mn/$56.9Mn); Curaleaf +2.9% ($9Mn/$313.4Mn); Ascend +10.6% ($9Mn/ $85.1Mn); TerrAscend +12.1% ($6Mn on $49.7Mn); AYR +2.4% ($2.7Mn/$111.2Mn), Columbia Care +2.2% ($2.7Mn/$123.1Mn).”
The analyst went a little further and found that the top five brands in the adult use market accounted for 80% of the total SKUs available. Verano was the winner here with 376 SKUs or 28% of the market share. It was followed by Curaleaf with 321 SKUs and a 24% share, then TerrAscend’s Kind Tree brand came in at 215 SKUs and 16% share. Green Thumb’s Rhythm brand had 6%, and Ascend Wellness’s Ozone brand had 5%.
Vapes had the most SKU’s with Verano leading the pack, while flower came in second and Curaleaf led that category. Curaleaf led the day for pre-rolls, while Verano mopped up with the edible category.
Most cannabis companies have been complaining about how challenging the cannabis industry has become. Mature markets are flattening out in sales and costs are going up, while prices come down. Consumers are being hit with inflation pressures and there are recession worries on the horizon. The addition of a new market and one that is looking to be a strong one is great news for these companies. Welcome to the Garden State.